(Updated: May 15 2019 16:17)

Simpson’s Paradox in 3D

Simpson’s Paradox in 3D

Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd. — Voltaire

Course work and grades

  • Final exam: 25% Two hours during the final exam period.
    • You must get a passing grade on the final exam in order to pass the course.
  • Midterm test: 20% Tuesday, May 21, 2019, 6:00 pm to 6:50 pm
  • Project: 25%
    You will work on an individual project in which you solve a real problem involving real data and prepare a report including analyses, graphical displays and a careful interpretation of your findings. The project has five components:
    1. Choose a problem that involves an insightful analysis of longitudinal data by May 14. Post information about the problem and data as a private post on Piazza to the instructor.
    2. An interim report on you progress submitted on Thursday May 23, which you will discuss with the instructor to get feedback.
    3. A ‘.R’ script using Markdown that produces a detailed analysis and presentation of your work, including diagnostics, etc. This output can be quite detailed. Submit draft on May 30, final version on June 10.
    4. A ‘.R’ script using Markdown that produces an attractive and readable report with your main findings prepared in a way that would be suitable for a publication. You need to include all relevant references, data sources, etc. Aim for a maximum of 30 pages. Submit draft on May 30, final version on June 10.
    5. Prepare slides for a 10-minute presentation on June 6. The slides should be prepared with R-markdown using the ioslides format or other slide format. The 10-minute limit is strict. Be aware that it takes careful preparation and rehearsing to give a good presentation in such a short time. The presentation will be followed by a 5-minute question and discussion period.
  • Assignments: 25%
    • Combination of occasional individual and weekly team assignments. Most are done on Piazza.
    • Some assignments may have a higher weight than others.
    • All team members should feel responsible for helping each other to prepare and understand all solutions.
    • For team assignments, you split the questions evenly among team members and decide which team member will be responsible to take the lead for which question(s). This is best done by agreeing to cycle through the questions in a systematic way. I will provide random numbers to help.
    • Team assignments are done in three steps. For an assignment given on Tuesday:
      • Step 1: to be completed by deadline #1, usually the following Friday at noon:
        • The team member reponsible for a question posts a tentative solution on Piazza before deadline #1.
        • It must have a title of the form specified for the assignment.
        • The solution must start by repeating the question so someone looking at the solution can tell what question it solves.
        • For math, use the LateX editor in Piazza. You can also make sketches on paper, photograph them and upload the photograph to Piazza. Use markdown in R as much as possible.
        • When you first submit the post, make it private to your team and use the folder assn X, where X is the number of the assignment.
        • Each post remains private to your team until after deadline #3.
        • You get full marks for effort in making an honest attempt, it does not have to be completely correct.
      • Step 2: to be completed by all teammates by deadline #2, usually the following Sunday at noon:
        • Provide feedback on the solutions posted by your teammates: suggestions for improvements, improving coding in R, pointing out inconsistencies or errors, broadening the answer to cover a broader range of cases, etc.
      • Step 3: to be completed by deadline #3, usually the following Monday at noon:
        • The team member responsible for a question reviews the suggestions made by teammates and incorporates them into the answer.After deadline #3 and before the next class, make the solutions public to the class.
      • Step 4: Update your LOG file with links to the questions for which you took the lead and questions for which you provided help or comments. Add a line of the form
        Assignment X: @123 @124 Comments: @111 @132
        where @123, etc. are links to Piazza posts.
      • I will select some solutions as interesting sample solutions and add them to the star folder.
        Being added to the star folder does not necessarily imply that a solution is correct, nor does it mean that it’s the best solution. It just means that I found some aspect of it interesting and illustrative of the issues presented in the question. Conversely, not getting a star does not mean that you don’t have an excellent solution. Sometimes solutions with ‘errors’ are more interesting from a pedagogical point of view.
  • Class and Piazza contributions: 5% (possibility of bonus marks for outliers)
    • Contribute actively in class and post questions and answers about course material on Piazza.
    • Contribute to the course ‘wiki’: post links to something on the web that is interesting and relevant to statistics and add a link to it on the wiki page with a brief summary of the content and relevance. You may import material from other course wikis if it is interesting and relevant to this course.
    • Add links to your contributions in your LOG file.
  • Class attendance and punctuality: Since lecture videos are posted online and much of the team collaboration can take place through Piazza, it may seem tempting to give class attendance a lower priority than it merits. To redress these regrettable disincentives, every class missed beyond two classes results in losing 1 mark (out of 100) on the final grade and each class missed beyond six classes loses 2 marks. Also, if you miss more than six classes, you may be dropped from your team which will result in you having to complete further team work on your own.

Prerequisites

Admission to a graduate program in Statistics. It is assumed that you have basic mastery of linear algebra, regression and mathematical statistics, especially likelihood theory.

Textbooks

  • There is no single textbook. We will use notes, slides and many references to textbooks and articles.

Getting Help

  • Post questions and comments about the course material on Piazza. Post your questions to the entire class so everyone can benefit from the discussion and answer. I will monitor Piazza and participate if other students don’t have an answer.
  • If you have a personal question for the instructor, you can post it on Piazza as a private posting to the instructor. This should only be used for personal questions that are of no interest to the rest of the class.
  • If you happen to post a private question whose answer is of general interest to the class and that contains no personal information, I will assume that you consent to it being posted to the whole class unless you explicitly request otherwise.
  • You can ask your teammates or other classmates directly.
  • You can see the instructor during office hours or after class.

Some reflections on teams

The project and many activities are done in semi-randomly assigned teams that will be assigned during the first week of class.

Working with a diverse team that you didn’t select yourself gives you the opportunity to have experiences that will give you great anecdotes to use in your future job interviews.

When you land the job, you will be much more likely to show the kind of leadership and productivity in team work that is invaluable in the modern workplace.

Once teams are assigned, you will be able to communicate directly with your team by posting messages on Piazza and directing them to your team.

The more work you do on an assignment the better prepared you are to do well on the term test and on the final exam. But you shouldn’t hog the work – let others do their part too. Everyone should make sure that they understand the whole assignment. Discuss the assignment with your team members to make sure everyone understands the key points and difficulties of each question.

Course policies

Missed deadlines

Late activities or projects may be penalized 20% of the value of the activity for each day (or portion of a day) they are late.

Missed term test

If you miss the term test with a suitably documented medical or compassionate reason, your mark for the term test will be imputed from your mark on the final exam. Otherwise you receive a grade of zero for the term test.

Use of computers in class

You should bring your laptop to class to use it for purposes directly related to the class such as taking notes, annotating slides posted on the web or trying out commands in R. Be aware that some pedagogical research suggests that taking handwritten notes leads to deeper learning for most students. I don’t think that this is true for all students and that is one reason why I would not consider requiring students to forego the use of computers.

It is natural to think that you do not affect anyone else if you are doing your own thing in class on your laptop, phone or tablet. This is incorrect. People seated around you cannot help but be distracted. The instructor gets distracted when members of the class are clearly lost in a different dimension. Therefore, I request that you not use your laptop or other devices to view unrelated materials because this creates distractions for other students and for me.

Academic honesty

Familiarize yourself with the York University Senate Policy on Academic Honesty. Violations of academic honesty are treated very seriously in university. __Always cite your sources for any information you use. This can as simple as providing links to websites you have visited to get information.

References